It is the first time Henry has referred to the referendum on UK membership of the European Union set for June 2016.
He wrote: “The US is a formidable and necessary ally, and by far the West’s most important military asset. But the West has only responded in an intelligent and co-ordinated way when its territories have been under direct attack. The second Iraq war was a disaster, the West has failed in Syria, and the success of ISIS is an affront to everything it stands for. Now we face another issue: the rivalry between the US and China. We would be better served if the UK helped the EU to build a more useful geopolitical presence as we enter this phase.
Did you know there are already freight trains running from China to Western Europe? The investment planned by China is vast and it will transform communications across the Eurasian landmass. Do not think this is just an overflow of energy from a rising economy. China aims to displace the US as the worlds leading superpower.
China is now reaching into an old and infirm Europe, which is also the richest single market on the planet. Europe needs to be both skilful and united in addressing this. China will try to seduce smaller countries who can hold up decisions. It will set debt traps. The referendum to which the UK government is now committed is a potential disaster. The public is totally unprepared. I dread this referendum.”
When Maureen and I called on Henry, he was also keen to tell us more about China’s strategy of “grey zone warfare”.
“Here’s a favourite war-games aphorism: there are only two ways to wage war — asymmetric or stupid. Grey Zone warfare is how a lesser military power seeks to reposition itself.
“Grey Zone warfare does not look for decisive results in a fixed timeframe. China published the so-called “nine-dash” line in 2009, enclosing large parts of the South China Sea including other countries’ territorial waters. Then, in 2013 it sent engineers to the Spratly and Paracel archipelagoes to build islands. Then it constructed bases and installed military aircraft. None of these steps on its own justified a full-scale military response. But now China can hold US carriers outside the refuelling range of a strike aircraft targeting the mainland because those carriers would risk attack from anti-ship ballistic missiles. Area Denial. But grey zone activity makes it hard to identify a particular interim strategy.
China knows asymmetric when it sees it. But it is widening areas of influence and deterring interventions all the time.”